Austin's 2024 Real Estate Market Outlook: Navigating the Uncertainties
As 2023 came to a close, I prepared to share a keenly anticipated personal forecast of Austin's real estate market for the upcoming year, 2024. You might wonder why this forecast didn't reach you earlier as promised. Life, as it often does, intervened in unexpected ways. My husband and collaborator in crafting these insightful pieces had to travel urgently, finding himself in a remote area far from the digital world's reach.
Such a delay, though unforeseen, gave me additional time to ponder the complexities of forecasting the real estate market a whole year ahead. It's a task as unpredictable as deciding on dinner – a daily mystery.
Yet, there lies the excitement in attempting to predict the unpredictable. Just like those bold pundits who make sweeping predictions about housing prices, interest rates, and even trending interior colors, I step into this arena of forecasts, albeit with a touch of cautious optimism. A year ago, ominous sounding prognosticators filled my inbox with somber warnings of a pending housing crash. One that never materialized.
2024 Predictions from Realtors.com
And this year? More of the same. In fact, Realtor.com predicts that Austin’s home prices will drop an additional 12.2% in contrast to a 1.7% dip nationwide. Realtor.com's 2024 National Housing Forecast And my response? Buyers beware. And sellers too. Why? Because such premonitions create a climate of postponement. Buyers end up thinking, “If prices are coming down 12%, let’s wait. They might even fall 15%.”
A Realtor's Perspective: Economics 101 and Austin's Market
Now you might reply, “Well Ivy, you’re a Realtor. How can you be objective when you’re trying to sell houses? Maybe you’re living in denial?” Maybe. But maybe not. Why? Consider the following:
Local Market Dynamics
Local home sales are directly connected to the local economy. Where there is a strong, growing workforce, one will find a robust housing market. “As long as there is not a major economic disruption (nationwide), Austin is going to be at the head of the pack” in terms of U.S. economic growth. “It would take something really strange to make Austin stumble,” reported Peter Rodriguez, dean of Rice University’s Jones Graduate School of Business. The Austin region added more than 245,000 jobs, or a 22% gain from November 2018 to November 2023. It is the largest percentage increase among major U.S. markets tracked.
Austin's GDP and Economic Health
I suppose the above set of numbers and percentages might seem a bit random without proper context. The Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, along with the Orlando Economic Partnership in Florida, offers such context by tracking the gross domestic product (GDP) of major U.S. metropolitan areas. GDP measures the market value of all the final goods and services produced in a specific time in a specific region – an overview of economic health. In late December, the Austin Business Journal reported the results for 2022. Nationwide, real GDP growth climbed 2.1%. And regionally? The report revealed the following rankings.
Austin-Round Rock-Georgetown: 7.4%
Orlando-Kissimmee-Sanford: 5.9%
Dallas-Fort Worth-Arlington: 5.7%
Las Vegas-Henderson-Paradise, Nev.: 5.3%
Miami-Fort Lauderdale-Pompano Beach, Fla.: 4.9%
Tampa-St. Petersburg-Clearwater, Fla.: 4.9% The Austin-area economy’s GDP came in at $193.63 billion in 2022, the Federal Reserve Bank reported, up from $180.24 billion the previous year.
Looking Ahead: The Next Two Years in Austin's Real Estate
Austin continues to create major magnets that, in turn, attract additional businesses, new residents, and workers. Samsung’s $17 billion semiconductor plant under construction in Taylor, along with Tesla’s growing campus, are two such examples. Dirk Mateer, an economist and University of Texas professor, projected growth for the Austin-area economy at a solid 5%.
Final Thoughts on ATX 2024 Housing Market
While there is more to discuss, I’ll pause here for now. But the conversation about Austin's dynamic real estate market is far from over. In the meantime, I invite you to stay engaged, stay warm, and if you're contemplating a move, let's connect for a warm, pressure-free chat. You can connect with me by sending a quick reply.